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Best Ball preview: U.S. Open

By: Shawn Peters  (archive)
Special to ESPN.com

In the United States of America, we believe in knowing, for sure, once and for all, who is "the best." That's why we have national championships in every major sport. The NBA calls it "The Finals," MLB calls it "The World Series" and the NFL calls it "The Super Bowl." But really, they're all simply national championships. College basketball's got one that gives us an undisputed champion, as does college baseball, college hockey, college footba … um, lacrosse. So while there are four majors in the world of golf, only one is the national championship of these United States, and that's the U.S. Open.

Call it patriotic pride or media-savvy marketing, but the U.S. Open is also the venue for the second installment of the ESPN Best Ball Challenge. Many of you have played before, but if it's your first time, here are the basics: The point of the game is to put together a foursome of golfers who will combine for the best score each day using "best ball" rules. Basically, each player's scorecard is combined and you get the lowest score of any of your four players on each hole, so if three of your pros bogey a par 5 and the other one holes out his second shot from 260 yards away, you get credit for the ultra-rare double-eagle, also known as an albatross. You have 50 million fantasy bucks to spend on your ideal foursome, and while that sounds like a lot unless you're a member of the Gates family, it's a budget that will prevent you from simply loading up on the four top players in the field. Like everyone else in this economy, you've got a limited amount to spend and if you go over your limit, your fantasy credit card will be rejected, confiscated and cut up by the smug-looking clerk at the register.

However, unlike in past incarnations of ESPN Best Ball, you now have the ability to switch the players on your roster and replace them with anyone who you think is playing better. If you've got Rocco Mediate -- who came within an eyelash of a massive upset victory at the U.S. Open in 2008 -- and he can't come within an eyelash of a birdie, you can swap him out between rounds for anyone of equal or lesser value. It's up to you. Ride the hot hand each day. Change the entire composition of your squad from two big salaries and two cheapies to a foursome of mid-priced options. Pick a team full of guys who have a last name beginning with "W" -- Boo Weekley, Nick Watney, Bubba Watson and Lee Westwood wouldn't be a bad foursome -- because this is the U.S. Open and we're big on freedom. However, while savvy moves mid-tournament are certainly crucial, the real key to getting off to a hot start and leading your group early is to begin with a fabulous foursome full of big birdies and excellent value. So how do you do that?

First, you have to look at where the tournament is being played and how the course will be set up. Bethpage Black in Farmington, N.Y., is a municipal golf course, meaning that anyone can play there. Well, actually, that's not true because at 7,214 yards and playing to a par of 70, it's considered just about the hardest public course in the country, so while you can arrive really early, spend your money and tee it up on Bethpage Black, only the best can "play" there.

The USGA will have it playing even harder, although the rumors are it won't be quite as brutal as it was in 2002, when Tiger won the U.S. Open there by being the only golfer in the field to break par. The greens are expected to run faster than Usain Bolt, and the deep rough will be thicker than Salma Hayek's eyebrows in "Frida." The course is long by any standard, giving some advantage to the Tour's biggest hitters, but really, it's going to take quite a bit of accuracy to get it done at Bethpage. Approaching greens as fast as the ones the USGA will set up requires the ability to spin and stop the ball. That's not going to be possible from the rough, so hitting fairways is key. Just as importantly, the U.S. Open will feature "graduated rough," which is to say the rough just off the fairway will be relatively light and low, and then get nastier the farther off you go. Thus, golfers who miss the fairway by a little may still have a shot at the green, while those who spray the ball all over the course will be forced to try to just pitch out to safety.

Finally, while the U.S. Open moves to different courses every year, looking at past performance is important because there are certain players who prove they can handle the way the USGA sets up a course. Sometimes, that means making a whole lot of pars, but that doesn't help you in ESPN Best Ball. You'd rather have a guy who makes birdies, even if he makes plenty of bogeys, too. So find a few guys whose track record says they can make birdie putts on crusty, slick greens, and be ready to trade them out if they are headed for a missed cut.

Here are some players I expect to shoot red numbers on Bethpage Black.

Grip and Rip

These are the high-priced stars who are the best bet to justify their salaries, and your love.

Tiger Woods: I'll admit, at times I write this recommendation just so I'm not the "so-called-expert who didn't like Tiger going into a major." But the fact is, Tiger won by three strokes at Bethpage in 2002 and that's like winning by six at a normal event. Woods hasn't yet found his trademark consistency in the first few months back on Tour, but with only four par-4s over 460 yards on the course, I expect him to sting his three-wood and two-iron off the tee, keep it in play, and give himself the most birdie opportunities in the field. Really, the $18 million question -- since that's his ESPN Best Ball salary -- is whether his putter shows up. My guess is it will.

Angel Cabrera: Not since John Daly was in his prime have we seen a player who is less afraid of making a big number than El Pato. I'm not sure how you say "Tin Cup" in Spanish, but that's Cabrera, sitting in the fairway with his last ball, going for broke. When he won The Masters in April, he did so, in part, because he never played timid. He went for pins and trusted that he could scramble for pars if it didn't work out. If missing a cut hurt you, then I'd be wary. But since you can swap him out, I'd say he's worth the $13.3 million investment.

Mike Weir: For three straight years, Weir has posted a top-20 finish at the U.S. Open, so he certainly has proven his ability to stick around and play four days of meaningful golf. In terms of making birdies, he ranked in the top 40 on Tour in birdie average through the HP Byron Nelson Championship. I'm also pretty swayed by his second-place finish at Pebble Beach, another "public" course that has hosted a U.S. Open or five. Weir's Canadian, but I'll pay the price of 12.6 million American fantasy bucks to get him on my squad.

Justin Leonard: Back in 2002, Leonard posted 15 birdies and one eagle at Bethpage, both totals bettering Tiger's marks. Only six golfers have beaten that total at the U.S. Open since. Leonard did it mostly with a scorching-hot putter, but he fits the profile of a guy who could do it again, considering the fact he ranks in the top 20 on Tour in terms of driving accuracy and, as a past major champion, he's proven his ability to hold it together for four pressure-packed rounds. It's worth $12.5 million to see if he can bring back that loving feeling at Bethpage.

Chunked Flops

These are the players who, while well known and highly regarded, aren't going to live up to their price.

Vijay Singh: In 2002, Singh was near the height of his powers, yet Bethpage whacked him, and his tie for 30th was one of his 10 worst finishes of the year. Now, he's playing deeply uninspired golf, with only one top-10 finish on the year through Lord Byron's tournament. On the year, he is right in the middle of the pack in terms of birdies per round, but his salary of $13.4 million still reflects the respect he has earned for winning three majors in the past. That's the past. He's not in your future.

Padraig Harrington: Remember the Padraig Harrington who won the final two majors of 2008 and looked to be "the guy" who would challenge Tiger when he returned from rehabbing his knee? Yeah, me too. Sadly, that guy hasn't showed up yet in 2009. Harrington has zero top-10 finishes in his first 10 tournaments in the States this year, and he has as many missed cuts as he has top-25 results. Worst of all for ESPN Best Ball players is his birdie average, which has slipped from a 2008 ranking of eighth overall to 105th through late May. You simply can't spend $14.9 million on him, even if he has won multiple majors in the past year.

Rocco Mediate: Do you remember that big hit movie, "Cinderella 2: Ella Gets Her Groove Back?" Of course not. Lightning might strike twice in real life, but in golf, it doesn't. While Rocco has three top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open in this century, he has missed the cut twice as well and has only two years in which he has made 10 or more birdies. Emotion is great. Nostalgia has its place. But you have a better use for $9.9 million.

Sand Saves

This is the category for any players of average price or lower who could reward you with big birdie totals.

Nick Watney: If I could build a birdie machine and make it for less than 12.5 million fantasy bucks, it would look just like Nick Watney. He hasn't been a very good U.S. Open player in his two times in the event, but a quick look at his performance through the HP Byron Nelson Championship shows just how adept he is at making red numbers. Nick has made at least 14 birdies in every tournament in which he's made the cut this year, and in the two instances he didn't play the weekend, he made at least four birdies per day before missing the cut. The dude is really long, and ranks 36th in terms of putts per green-in-regulation. He will miss some fairways and deal with the rough, but there will be plenty of birdie chances mixed in for just $12.1 million.

Tim Clark: The South African is having such a beautiful, under-the-radar season, with three top-10s in his first 11 events. Through late May, he ranked in the top 15 in terms of driving accuracy, putting average and birdie average. Clark wasn't around for the 2002 event at Bethpage, but he has made the cut in four of the past five U.S. Opens, with three top-20 finishes. At $11.8 million, he's a low-risk guy with big upside.

John Merrick: Do I expect Merrick to win the U.S. Open? No, though it's certainly not impossible. But I do see him as one of the best values in the field. For $8.3 million, you're getting a very long hitter who is at least average at everything else, with flashes of brilliance. Not only did he tie for sixth at The Masters, he also did the same at the 2008 U.S. Open en route to amassing 15 birdies, the second-highest total for the week. This is the guy you pair with Tiger so you have enough dough to pick at least one more good player in your starting foursome.

Now you're armed with what you need to know in order to make a splash in the ESPN Best Ball Challenge for the U.S. Open. Thousands will enter, but since this is America, only one will be the best.

Shawn Peters covers fantasy golf for ESPN.com fantasy games.



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